Fall chinook run expectation lowered

Tribal and non-tribal commercial fishers, as well as lower Columbia River anglers, are sweeping in tens of thousands of salmon this year even while fishery managers keep a close watch on impacts to protected stocks such as so-called “B” steelhead bound for the most part for Idaho and wild Lower River Hatchery fall chinook salmon tules.

The salmon return to the Columbia-Snake river system in 2014 has been huge, though slightly below expectations. In preseason the Technical Advisory Committee’s federal, state and tribal members predicted that a record-breaking return of 919,000 upriver bright fall chinook would return to the mouth of the Columbia this year, surpassing the record (back to at least 1938) 784,300 adult fish total witnessed last year.

But, based in large part on counts at Bonneville Dam’s fish ladders to-date, TAC thhe week of September 14 revised its run-size estimates to 723,500 URBs and 110,000 Bonneville Pool Hatchery adult chinook. The BPH tule return projection had been 103,200 in preseason.

The upriver brights are fall chinook headed for tributaries and hatcheries upstream of Bonneville in the mid and upper Columbia and the Snake as well as in tributaries such as Oregon’s Deschutes River and Washington’s Yakima River. The BPH are for the most part fish produced at Spring Creek National Fish Hatchery located in the Bonneville reservoir.

The run-size update now estimates that the 2014 Columbia River return, including lower river fish, will reach nearly 1,258,000 adult fall chinook. That would be 83 percent of preseason forecast of 1,510,600 adult fall chinook. The 2013 return of 1,268,400 was the largest in recent history.

Fishing on the Columbia has been good. During the “early fall” season, which consisted of 13 fishing periods in Zones 4-5 from Aug. 3-Sept. 2, non-tribal commercial fishermen caught an estimated 47,730 fall chinook in river reaches downstream of Bonneville, which is located at river mile 146. That was about 55 percent of the expected harvest but fishing was halted over concerns about a larger than expected handling of wild LRH chinook. Catches are limited in order to control impacts on fish such as the wild LRH and B steelhead, which are protected under the Endangered Species Act.

The late fall commercial season began with a nine-hour period for the night of Sept. 14 and a 10-hour period for the night of Sept. 16.

“Chinook catch for the first two periods was higher than expected with about 34,600 chinook and 3,600 coho landed,” according to a Sept. 18 fact sheet prepared by Oregon and Washington department of fish and wildlife staffs. “CWT [coded wire tag] data has not been fully analyzed at this time but will determine if and/or where additional fishing opportunity can occur in September. Data should be complete early next week.” The tag data will allow fishery officials to evaluate impacts on listed fish. Fishery officials say the chinook caught that week averaged 15.7 pounds; the coho 9 pounds.

The Nez Perce, Umatilla, Warm Springs and Yakama tribes, meanwhile, are having a strong commercial season with an estimated 208,424 chinook caught so far. That estimate includes a projected catch of 69,500 chinook the week of September 14.

“We had a very good catch last week,” Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission biologist Stuart Ellis told the Columbia River Compact Sept. 18. The catch during the Sept. 8-13 tribal fishery in reservoirs upstream of Bonneville included 80,217 fall chinook (including 45,626 brights) and 3,228 steelhead (including 859 B steelhead).

“That’s certainly a record for recent years, and probably going back a long time,” Ellis said of the week’s tribal chinook harvest.

The Compact, which sets mainstem commercial fishing seasons, approved several tribal fishing periods. The tribes estimate they should catch another 44,400 chinook. Tony Nigro and Guy Norman represented, respectively the directors of the ODFW and WDFW on the Compact.

“Catch expectations in the proposed fishery openings are well within the total allowed catches based on the updated run size projections for URB chinook and B steelhead,” according to a fact sheet prepared by the tribes for the Compact. “The expected catches would be within the allowed harvest rates down to a B steelhead run of 32,300.”

Ellis, who also serves as TAC chair, said the panel estimates, based on limited data collected at Bonneville Dam, that both Group A and Group B summer steelhead returns will exceed the preseason forecast. The latest estimate is for a return of 36,500 B steelhead to Bonneville compared to a preseason estimate of 31,000. Data should be available next week for a more refined estimate.

Sport catch estimates for the Buoy 10 fishery near the Columbia mouth include 26,800 chinook kept (15,800 released) from 95,200 angler trips. Chinook retention there ended Sept. 1.

“Although total catch was less than expected, CWT data indicates the LRH stock component was higher than expected preseason (25 percent v 13 percent),” according to the joint state fact sheet. “The coho fishery at B10 is on-going; estimated harvest through Sept. 14 totals 50,600 coho (including release mortalities) compared to the 56,500 fish estimated preseason. LRH take from this fishery is estimated at 7,400 fish compared to 6,600 fish expected preseason (112 percent of allocated).”

Catch estimates for the lower Columbia River recreational fishery downstream of Bonneville include 19,900 chinook kept (6,900 released) and 4,600 coho kept (2,400 released) from 108,400 angler trips through Sept. 14, the fact sheet says. Chinook catch to date for this fishery is tracking behind expectations. The area from Tongue Point upstream to Warrior Rock was closed to chinook retention until Oct. 1 as scheduled. The area from Warrior Rock upstream to Bonneville Dam is scheduled to remain open for chinook through December.